PCMDI - IPCC

We propose to follow the approach of Boer (2004) to estimate both the long-timescale potential predictability of the IPCC models but also the change in potential predictability under different warming scenarios. Since "potential predictability", as used here, is a measure of long timescale variability, the study is essentially an attempt to measure and to understand, in so far as possible with available data, changes to this long-timescale variability.
Data: (time series of monthly or annual gridded fields of) - surface temperature - radiative fluxes at the TOA and the surface - evaporation, precipitation, sensible heat fluxes Reference: Boer, G.J., 2004: Long timescale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models, Clim. Dyn., in press. Proponents: George Boer (possibly S. Kharin and/or S. Lambert)

PI:	George Boer
Institution:	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Abstract:
We propose to follow the approach of Boer (2004) to estimate both the long-timescale potential predictability of the IPCC models but also the change in potential predictability under different warming scenarios. Since "potential predictability", as used here, is a measure of long timescale variability, the study is essentially an attempt to measure and to understand, in so far as possible with available data, changes to this long-timescale variability. Data: (time series of monthly or annual gridded fields of) - surface temperature - radiative fluxes at the TOA and the surface - evaporation, precipitation, sensible heat fluxes Reference: Boer, G.J., 2004: Long timescale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models, Clim. Dyn., in press. Proponents: George Boer (possibly S. Kharin and/or S. Lambert)
Publications:

Long-timescale potential predictability of an ensemble of models