Report 48:  Are Revised Models Better Models?  A Skill Score Assessment of Interannual Variability

Kenneth R. Sperber and Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

September 1998, 21 pp. 

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Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon wind shear is examined in integrations per-formed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indexes considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulatingthe observed interannual variability. Additionally, the revised models have an improved signal-to-noise ratio (with the exception of Sahel rainfall). The results suggest that changing a models convection scheme is more beneficial for the simulation of tropical interannual variability than modification of the land surface package. Improvement in the simulation of interannual variability is directly related to the reductionof systematic error in the mean state. (pdf file)

UCRL-MI-123395