Report 48: Are Revised Models Better Models?
A Skill Score Assessment of Interannual Variability
Kenneth R. Sperber and Participating AMIP Modelling Groups
September 1998, 21 pp.
Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised
models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability
of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon wind shear
is examined in integrations per-formed under the experimental design of
the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indexes considered,
the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulatingthe observed interannual
variability. Additionally, the revised models have an improved signal-to-noise
ratio (with the exception of Sahel rainfall). The results suggest that
changing a models convection scheme is more beneficial for the simulation
of tropical interannual variability than modification of the land surface
package. Improvement in the simulation of interannual variability is directly
related to the reductionof systematic error in the mean state. (pdf