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Report 30: Correlation Between Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific: A Model Intercomparison

Covey,

Results from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project show that general circulation models tend to underestimate the emission of anomalous heat to space during the 1987 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific. This bias suggests that the models may underestimate negative feedbacks on climate involving longwave radiation in the tropical atmosphere. Such a possibility is consistent with analyses of paleo-data that suggest climate models generally overestimate climate sensitivity in the tropics. (pdf file)

UCRL-MI-123395