Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. Palmer and B. Hoskins, 1997:  Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Q.J.R.Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1323-1357.

Monsoon variability on intraseasonal and interannual time-scales is analysed using data from five 10-year European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project integrations, which differ only in their initial conditions. The results show that monsoon fluctuations within a season and within different years have a common dominant mode of variability. The spatial pattern of the common dominant mode in precipitatiOn has a pronounced zonal structure, with one band of anomalous rainfall extending from 20°N to 5°N, covering most of the land areas, with the other band, of opposite sign, lying between 5°N and 10°S, mostly over the Indian Ocean. This mode therefore describes both the active/break monsoon spells associated with fluctuations of the Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ) between the continental and the oceanic regime and the principal pattern of interannual variability of monsoon rainfall. In the observations the oscillations between active and break monsoon spells have similar behavior, although the model is deficient in representing the rainfall variability over India.

On the intraseasonal time-scale the transition between the two regimes seems to have a chaotic nature. In addition the probability density function of the principal mode is bimodal for the years in which this mode is particularly dominant. These two results indicate a possible similarity with the Lorenz 3-component chaotic model. Northward-propagating convective regions, simulated by the model, are not clearly associated with the phase transitions of the TCZ regime. The timing of the monsoon onset appears to be modulated by the phase of the El Niño/Southem Oscillation during the preceding season, consistent with observational studies.

The results suggest that the dominant mode may also represent some components of the observed monsoon variability. The interannual fluctuations of the dominant mode exhibit only a weak level of reproducibility compared with the relatively large predictability of a broad- scale monsoon wind-shear index.